Market & Risk Forecast Lead
hace 2 días
London Borough of Ealing
The Market & Risk Forecasting Lead will own Motability Operations’ quantitative outlook for the UK automotive market and used-vehicle market, providing the economic and market forecasting that underpins our view of future vehicle values. Sitting at the intersection of economics, quantitative modelling, automotive markets and financial risk, you will combine econometric analysis, market evidence and expert judgement to develop our central market outlook, sensitivities and alternative scenarios. The outputs of this role inform some of Motability Operations' most financially significant decisions, including residual value assumptions, pricing, fleet valuation, provisions and portfolio risk management across the UK's largest car leasing fleet. You do not need to come from the automotive industry. We are particularly interested in people with strong backgrounds in economic forecasting, quantitative risk, asset-value modelling or applied econometrics who are interested in applying those skills to the automotive market. You will report to the Head of Residual Value & SMR Risk within the Asset Risk Division. As part of the role, you will: • Own Motability Operations’ quantitative outlook for the UK automotive and used-vehicle market, including the central forecast, key assumptions, sensitivities and alternative scenarios that underpin our view of future vehicle values., • Analyse how macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, inflation, employment, interest rates and consumer affordability influence vehicle values., • Work with the Risk Modelling Team, who operate and maintain the underlying forecasting models, to ensure model outputs appropriately support the market outlook and the decisions that rely upon it., • Define the economic and market assumptions, scenarios and analytical questions that need to be reflected through the forecasting models., • Review and challenge model updates and outputs presented by Risk Modelling, combining quantitative evidence with automotive market intelligence and expert judgement to determine the implications for the overall outlook., • Assess whether historical relationships and model outputs remain appropriate as economic conditions, consumer behaviour and the automotive market evolve., • Translate modelling outputs and wider market evidence into a clear, coherent market narrative for senior stakeholders and decision‑making forums., • Provide key forecasting inputs into quarterly Residual Value Reviews and fleet revaluations across our vehicle portfolio., • Work closely with Residual Value analysts to ensure top‑down economic and market forecasts are appropriately reflected in vehicle‑level assumptions., • Partner with Pricing, Finance, Risk, Data & Insight and other teams to understand the commercial and financial implications of changes in the outlook., • Work with Risk Modelling to identify opportunities to strengthen forecasting methodologies, including requirements for model development, back‑testing, sensitivity analysis and assessment of structural market changes., • Ensure forecasting models and assumptions are appropriately governed, documented and subject to effective review and challenge.Monitor developments in the economy and automotive market, identifying emerging risks and assessing whether historical relationships remain appropriate., • Engage with external economists, industry bodies, data providers and market experts where appropriate to challenge and strengthen our outlook., • Promote best practice in quantitative forecasting, model governance and knowledge sharing across Asset Risk. You are comfortable developing and challenging models, but equally comfortable explaining what the results mean to senior stakeholders who may not have a technical background. You are likely to have experience in areas such as economics, financial risk, credit/market risk, asset finance, insurance, transport, energy, consulting or another environment where long‑term forecasts inform material business decisions. You will bring: • Strong experience in quantitative forecasting, economic modelling or financial risk analysis., • A good understanding of macroeconomics and how economic variables can influence markets, consumers and asset values., • Practical experience using statistical or econometric techniques such as regression, time‑series analysis, scenario modelling or stress testing., • Experience assessing model performance through validation, back‑testing, sensitivity analysis and appropriate diagnostic testing., • Strong analytical judgement, including an understanding of the limitations of models and when additional evidence or expert judgement may be required., • The ability to translate complex analysis into a concise and compelling commercial story., • Confidence presenting forecasts and recommendations to senior stakeholders and responding constructively to challenge., • Experience working across teams to deliver complex analytical outputs to fixed deadlines., • Strong data and analytical skills. Experience with tools such as Python, R, SQL, Snowflake, Excel or similar analytical software would be beneficial., • Curiosity about markets and a willingness to develop deep knowledge of the automotive sector. You’ll need all of these. • Significant experience of quantitative forecasting, economic analysis, risk modelling or applied statistical modelling in a commercial environment., • Experience developing, interpreting or validating models used to support material business decisions., • Experience translating quantitative analysis into clear recommendations for senior stakeholders. Previous automotive or residual value experience would be advantageous but is not essential. Motability Operations is a unique organisation, virtually one of a kind. We combine a strong sense of purpose with a real commercial edge to ensure we provide the best possible worry‑free mobility solutions to over 800,000 customers and their families across the UK. Customers exchange their higher rate mobility allowance to lease a range of affordable vehicles (cars, wheelchair accessible vehicles, scooters, and powered wheelchairs) with insurance, maintenance and breakdown assistance included. We are the largest car fleet operator in the UK (purchasing around 10% of all the new cars sold in the UK) and work with a network of around 5,000 car dealers and all the major manufacturers. We pride ourselves on delivering outstanding customer service, achieving an independently verified customer satisfaction rating of 9.8 out of 10. Our values are at the heart of everything we do. They represent ambition, and we look for our people to live and breathe them every day: • We find solutions, • We drive change, • We care We operate hybrid working across the organisation where we split our time between working on‑site at our offices, and at home, remotely within the UK. We believe hybrid working achieves a good work/life balance for our colleagues, allowing us to connect with each other, collaborate on important work, and perform together to deliver for our customers.It allows us to have the flexibility to work remotely up to 2-days per week whilst also using the great office spaces we have available. As a Motability Operations team member, the benefits you can expect are: • Competitive reward package including an annual discretionary bonus, • 15% non‑contributory pension (9% non‑contributory pension during probation period), • 28 days annual leave with option to purchase and sell days, • Free fresh fruit and snacks in the office, • 1 day for volunteering, • Funded Private Medical Insurance cover, • Electric/Hybrid Car Salary Sacrifice Scheme and Cycle to Work Scheme, • Life assurance at 4 times your basic salary to give you a peace of mind that your loved ones will receive some financial help, • Funded health screening for over 50s, • Voluntary benefits: charitable giving, critical illness insurance, dental insurance, health and cancer screenings for you and your partner, discounted gym memberships and season ticket loans, • Employee Discount Scheme with an app to save on the go, • Free access to healthcare apps such as Peppy, Unmind, Aviva Digital GP and volunteering app on Hand for all employees, • Generous family leave policies At Motability Operations, we believe in building a diverse workforce, where our people are empowered to attend work as their true selves, and we encourage people from all backgrounds to apply.We want to sustain a culture that nurtures, where employees are free to flourish and where they’re rewarded equally, regardless of race, nationality or ethnic origin, sexual orientation, age, disability, or gender. We pride ourselves on being an inclusive employer and as such, all our offices provide first rate disability access. With our hybrid working environment, we do our best to accommodate part‑time and flexible working requests where possible, building on our culture of trust, empowerment, and flexibility. #J-18808-Ljbffr
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